End of the Cold War

ここに三つの大事な出来事がまとまっている

Focus of the topic

Confrontation and Reconcilation

confrontして勝ったから終わった vs Rencocileで和解したから終わった

もしくは、factors (ideological, political, etc)

どっちが問われても良いようにすべき

Background Info

Body

USSR Dissolve in 1991

Confrontation

USSR econ stagnating, inefficient command econ, 25% GDP per capita of USA

1980 oil prices fall, indebted to west reaches $2.5 billion

Arms Race: USSR cannot keep up with USA spending. 20% of GDP spent on weapons, vs. USA 5%. Must reduce arms spending or lower living standards

Perestroika: restructuring of economy; de-centralization, allows some private business, no more price-controls

Effects: Unemployment increases, prices increase, living standards fall dramatically.

Reduced support for Gorbachev, more support for independence movements (want more radical change), or communist hardliners (want to maintain old system)

Social issues

Glasnost, Effects (focus on nationalist movements)

USSR 15 “independent” republics, but politically dominated by Russians

Some Republics (Baltics, Caucuses) forcibly part of USSR

Glasnost (openness): allows people to address national issues, censorship ending exposes Soviet crimes, massacres, of minority groups

Effects: Baltic states (latvia, lithuania, estonia) declare independence in 1990, Gorbachev uses force to put down rebellions.

Tensions about nationalism, Gorbachev proposes “New Union Treaty”, gives more independence to republics

Dissolution of USSR (August Coup, formation of CIS)

Econo

Conservative communists reject the treaty as too radical, would break USSR

Launch “August Coup” 1991, take over gov, Gorbachev hostage

Boris Yeltsin - Leader of Russia, Republic, protests against coup, rallies popular support in Moscow, coup fails

Clear that Gorbachev and Communists are not in control, lost support, Second most important republic, Ukraine votes for independence, followed by Russia and Belarus.

USSR voluntarily disbands, Gorbachev resigns, CIS (Commonwealth of Indepdant States) of the 15 republics forms.

How did the Arms Race come to an end?

•Reagan’s new Cold War (SDI, Evil Empire, Reagan Doctrine)

New Cold War:ending the detente (lasts until 1985)

Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI):An anti-ballistic missile program, shooting down missiles in space, “Star Wars”

Evil Empire (1983):Reagan referring USSR to an evil empire, increasing ideological tension

Reagan Doctrine:The concept was to stop the spread of communism before it could attack a country, Reagan sent troops to Grenada to stop a communist invasion, supporting anti-communist fighters in Afghanistan

•Renewed Détente (Afghanistan, China)

Afghanistan (1986):Gorbachev withdrew his troops from Afghanistan as their foreign policy did not work, replacement of president (Mohammed Najibullah)

China:PRC frontiers and Soviet troops were reduced, relation fully restored

•End of Arms race (arms reduction treaties, conferences)

START treaty(1991):LImited the number of ICBMs and nuclear warhead that can be possessed

Warsaw Pact and NATO me to sign the treaty on conventional armed force in Europe:reduction of weapons in Europe

Annual meetings to prevent conflicts

Why did Communism collapse in Eastern Europe by 1990? (Shutaro) (Textbook p267-)

•Economic and Political conditions of Eastern Europe by 1980’s

2 Types of nations

Type 1:Poland/Hungary/Bulgaria

Proactive to proceed limited political and economic reform

Type 2:GDR, Czechslovakia, Romania, Albania

Unwilling to proceed reforms

(Ignored Yugoslavia, irregular)

•Revolution of Type 1: Impact of Gorbachev’s reforms (end Brezhnev doctrine)

Gorbachev ending Brezhnev doctorine 1989

Aimed to maintain Soviet security at Eastern Europe by negotiation and cooperation, not by force.

Pol/Hun/Bul: Revolutionary changes occurred with negotiation with ruling communists

Ex: Poland: (negotiation)

Issues such as Indebted economic situation and corrupted government and industry existed

Due to this, people forced government to legalize Solidarity.

Solidarity and PUWP(communists) agreed to allow Solidarity to compete for 35% of seats in the lower parliament

However, election proved the popularity of Solidarity, and government got transformed to a regime led by Solidarity

Important: Gorbachev did not oppose this entire process, and Poland remained in Warsaw Pact

Known as “Negotiated revolutions”

•Revolution of Type 2: Impact of opening of Berlin Wall

Berlin Wall opened 1989/11/9

GDR/CzSl/Rom/Alb:

Ex: Germany:

Leipzig demonstrations 1989 9/25-10/16

Non-violent protestors

Non-violent governments

Support of Soviet Union wasn’t provided to communists

Led to replacement of Honecker by Krenz

Accidental opening of Berlin Wall

Crowds gathered at the border on 11/9

Ex: Romania:

Ceausescu was unpopular due to his failure of economic/political policies.

Opening of Berlin Wall induced the revolution

The first revolts at Timisoara 1989/12/9

Army sided the people

Soviet Union did not intervene.

Ceausescu fled the capital, but got executed on 12/22

National Salvation Front (left-side party) was then formed, and gained majority in elections.

Communist remained in power after democratic elections, as Gorbachev hoped.

There were unexpected revolutions for the Soviet Union

Body

Confrontation

Confrontation led to reconcilliation

Renewed arms race

SDI

Too costly for Soviets

TODO: Get numbers

Reconcilliation

Gorbachev + Regan

Summits, not many aggreements but met frequenty

Glasnost + Perestroika

Sattelite States

First Hungary

Fall of berlin wall

雑記

Historiography

Orthodox: USA won the confrontation after strong pressures and superior economy and arms

Regan gets credit for strongly defeating the USSR

Revisionist: No one won the Cold War, but they reconciled their differences and ended the amrs race

Gorbachev gets credit for chosing to stop the conflict early

Gorbachev

USSR had problems, but wasnt in critical crisis

so no need for reforms, but he did it to imrpove lives of people

Economic: Perestroika - de-centralize the economy

problems: inefficient, corrupt, stagnation (no growth)

Oil Crisis also dameged the economy

1970s

aimed to decentralize the economy

instead of central government controlling, local Soviets made their own decisions

each Soviets decided how much to charge for products

also, allowed little Privatization

taxis, kiosks, salons, markets, cafes

Social: Glasnost - Allow freedom of speech

No freedom of speech, religion, etc, people were tired

Also, nationalist movement requested more autonomy

So, allowed openness in 1986

News showing truth, anti-communist literatures published

Western Cultures allowed: rock music, movies, fasion, etc

Nationalist problems allowed to discuss

HOWEVER, no independence was allowed

Political: Demokrazatsia: Real competitive elections with multiple parties

Old anti-reform politicians opposed Gorbachev, so he needed more supporters

So, tried to bring more democracy

Congress of People's Deputies formed in 1988

New position of President created in 1990, elected by people

Foreing Policy

たぶんここがessay的に大事？

Abandoned marxist views of "class struggle" and "world revolution"

Ends Brezhnev doctorine

Brezhnev: "USSR will intervene militarily to protect communist mesaures, in influence sphere"

Golbachev ended this

WIthdraw from Afghanistan

Possible Essay Questions

? To what extent was confrontation rather than reconciliation the contributing factor for the end of the Cold War?

Resources

Notes